One of the big aftershocks of the New Hampshire primary election for President was the failure of the polls to “predict” the results.

Nevermind that pollsters steadily insist they are not in the business of predicting. Rather, they are in the business of describing how people think at a particular time on a particular topic.

It is abundantly clear from conversations with folks just before and after the voting in New Hampshire that many voters made up, changed, re-changed and then changed their minds again at the very last minute. Many said they came to their decision only in the voting booth.

Thus questions about which way they were “strongly leaning” a couple of days earlier had little predictive value. In addition, the polls focused on people with opinions, not the great numbers who were steadfastly undecided.

There were other issues as well, including the fact that a fair number of folks voted absentee and thus missed the survey. And events on the campaign trail were red hot in the final 24 hours or so.

So, the polls might have been “right” about how folks were thinking leading up to the voting, but wrong about how they actually decided.

Does this mean we should ignore polls? Hardly. They help measure public sentiment and give us a good cross-check on the election outside of the spin machines of the campaigns themselves.

So whether the polls are local in Hawaii or national, take them for what they are. Use them as part of your decision-making process, but don’t let them become a substitute for your own critical thinking.

For sure, they won’t go away. No matter what anyone says, you can be sure the campaigns themselves are polling. And they are using those poll results to guide decisions and actions.

Why shouldn’t the public be in on the action?

It’s not really clear why the Honolulu City Council has become so twisted up over the process by which a mass transit technology is chosen,

As reported by Johnny Brannon, the council members are stalled as they try to decide whether to let a panel of top-flight experts choose the technology (steel wheels on rails, rubber tires on track, magnetic levitation or whatever) or whether they should do it themselves.

Mayor Mufi Hannemann is pushing the professional advisory panel route.

This shouldn’t be an “either-or” decision. If they have the money,go ahead and hire the technical experts and allow them to rate the various technologies from top to bottom, using all the engineering and technical expertise they have.

At that point, the Council should step in and choose the option among many that best meets not only all the technical requirements, but political and financial considerations as well. And make no mistake: Political considerations are a part of the deal. Any choice will produce winners and losers, and this is where the political process must play a part, in an open, transparent way. The best choice, technically, might not be the best choice politically or financially.

This makes for painful decisions. But that’s what our elected council members are paid to do.

When Ed Muskie appeared to cry in New Hampshire in an emotional defense of his family and his campaign back in 1972, many political observers said this was the moment that marked the beginning of the end of his campaign.

When Hillary Clinton appeared to tear up, or at least get a bit misty and emotional in New Hampshire just this week, political observers said it was the moment that marked her comeback against a surging Barak Obama.

And indeed, some voters say Mrs. Clinton’s show of emotion humanized a candidate that often appeared too cold, too calculating – particularly in comparison with the high emotion and passion projected by Obama.

All this makes for a good story line, but you have to remember: political observers are not psychoanalysts. It’s easy to point to a singular moment when a political campaign turns one way or another. But the reality is that any legitimate campaign is a thousand actions and a thousand decisions. Those “public moments” that seem so defining are usually just a small chip floating on a river of intense activity beneath.

What do you think? Did Hillary’s moment of human emotion turn back the Obama tide. Is that all it takes?

For those folks who like to portray Hawaii as a hell for business, the saga of the Superferry must be more than perplexing.

First, Hawaii was anything but anti-business as it welcomed this new and intriguing enterprise with excitement, both from the public and from government interests.

But then there were the lawsuits and protests: Anti-business. The Luddites of Hawaii will do anything to keep something new from setting roots in the Islands, critics moaned.

Then there was the extraordinary special session of the Legislature to rework the law so the ferry could begin operations despite the fact that an environmental assessment or even an impact statement might be required. What could be more pro-business than a Legislature cooking up legislation to help a specific business out of a sticky place?

Now comes word in a story by Derrick DePledge that as far back as October of 2004 officials deep within the state were pushing for a statewide environmental assessment for the new service. Some quick adjustments by the ferry company and who knows what re-thinking within the bowels of the Lingle administration put out that brush fire. Was it anti-business that concerned bureaucrats were pushing for environmental review, or was it pro-business that they did not prevail?

In many ways, this represents the debate that surrounds almost any big new project in the state, whether on land or at sea. Most folks in Hawaii welcome progress and accept change, but they insist on having it on their own careful terms. These Islands, they feel, are just too small and too vulnerable to rush into irreversible decisions.

How do you feel?

Now, where was I?

Oh, that’s right. I was going on about budget writing and how political the whole process is.

That is SO yesterday.

Today, politics is all about Obama, Hawaii’s favorite son (at least for the moment). Truth is, the fact that this latest Democratic star was born and schooled in Hawaii makes him intriguing to us. But there’s a long road to travel before he wins the support of local Democrats at the presidential nominating convention. Each of the major candidates has muscle in the Islands, particularly Hillary Clinton, who has the strongest backing among “name” Democrarts and Dennis Kucinich, who remains a favorite among liberal or progressive Democrats.

But face it, this is “Barry’s” moment. It was fun to read in Derrick DePledge’s story that Obama spent part of the early morning in Iowa caucus day shooting hoops “with a bunch of his buddies from Hawaii.” So, you can take the man out of Punahou but you can never take Punahou entirely out of the man. Maybe this is the start of a new focus on Hawaii as part of the Obama biography. Apparently, his wife told a reporter he should go to Hawaii if he ever expects to truly understand Obama.

Good idea. Those of us in Hawaii already get it. It would be nice if the rest of the nation got it too.