There’s been lots of talk about how this year’s elections — at least locally — are rather on the dull front. Few dramatic challenges to incumbents are on the horizon. If you’ve been watching television, you might have noticed advertisements for Congresswoman Mazie Hirono, but those appear designed to scare others off rather than deal with a serious electoral threat.

But if the political races are low-key, there’s a chance the public will get energized by two non-personality matters which might be on the ballot. The first is a proposal for a Constitutional Convention, which will sharply pit the force that like things the way they are verus folks who think nothing will change around here unless the rules themselves (the Constituton) is changed.

The other is the possibility that rail transit will be on the ballot in Honolulu. If the initiative fails for legal reasons, it will still be the dominant question through the candidacy of UH Professor Panos Prevedouros, whose campaign is a surrogate for the anti-rail people.

And finally, if that’s not enough, local folks will be more than normally energized by a presidential campaign between a ar hero with Hawaii ties, John MCain and a Hawaii born kamaaina, Barack Obama.

Are you going to get involved?

Although it is a relatively small portion of its overall budget, the money the Office of Hawaiian Affairs has spent to promote and lobby the idea of a Hawaiian nation poses a number of problems.

OHA was set up by the people of Hawaii to work for the “betterment” of Hawaiians after the 1978 Constitutional Convention. While some convention delegates and some voters may have had an independent Hawaiian political entity in mind, most folks were looking at a somewhat narrower picture. The idea was to create a dedicated agency that had the best interests of Hawaiians at heart and would do what it could to lift up a group of people who had among the worse social indicators (education, poverty, incarceration, health) in their native state.

Now it may be the surest way to cure those ills is to create an independent Hawaiian nation, which then could negotiate directly with the state and the federal government for what it believes is needed. That’s a political solution.

The other programs OHA is involved in seek to achieve the goal of bettering the condition of Hawaiians through functional means: Business grants, education, social services and the like.

If OHA is going to focus on a political solution, it needs to have a greater conversation with the rest of the state and its citizens about this approach. After all, everyone has a stake in the tax dollars and ceded lands money that is being spent on this important cause.

There he goes again. Hawaii’s Barack Obama made headlines with word he will deliver his acceptance speech at the Denver Democratic Convention not within the convention hall itself, but rather at the 75,000-seat Mile High Stadium, home to the Denver Broncos.

Commentators say he is emulating John Kennedy, who also packed a stadium for his acceptance speech in Los Angeles in 1960. That’s probably the case. Or maybe its because Obama has been drawing such huge crowds recently that his team realized they had a magnificent photo op on their hands if they played it right.

Or maybe it’s because Obama remembers a bit of Hawaii political history from the time he was a high school student and the 1978 campaign for governor was underway. The Democratic Primary featuring a head-to-head battle between George Ariyoshi (who won) and Honolulu Mayor Frank Fasi.

A highlight of that campaign was the audacious decision by campaign strategist Bob Oshiro to hold a late-primary rally at Aloha Stadium, which can seat 50,000 people. This was a high-stakes gamble, not least because of the logistics involved. But what if the event didn’t draw a full crowd? Ariyoshi would have looked mighty lonely speaking to a half-empty stadium.

As it turned out, the lure of free bento box lunches for 50,000 (prepared by volunteers) plus an unparalleled lineup of entertainment arranged by Larry Mehau made the event a huge success. It was the largest political gathering ever in Hawaii and it hasn’t been duplicated since.

Now, if Obama decides he can make time to come home to Hawaii (and who knows?) might we see a repeat of history being made with another rally at the Stadium, this time not for governor, but for a presidential candidate? Hmmmm?

It’s tough to figure out precisely what Gov. Linda Lingle is up to with her announcement that she intends to sign an anti-rail transit petition now making the rounds in Honolulu.

Lingle said it is purely a matter of her belief that the people have a right to decide matters of this importance. But the plain fact is that if the proposed rail referendum gets on the ballot and if it is passed rail is dead — at least in its present incarnation.

So the signal is that the governor of this state willing to accept — if not fully endorse — the idea that transit may die once more.

All this has mightily upset Mayor Mufi Hannemann, who thought the governor was on board the transit train. As far back as 2003 Lingle was talking about a multi-billion dollar light rail system for Oahu, in cooperation with the City. The big project, much like the one now being proposed, would demand a tax increase, Lingle said at the time.

And in 2005, she made a point of noting in her State of the State speech that both she and the mayor were “supporters” of mass transit on Oahu.

The let-the-people-speak idea is fine, but it must face the fact that the people’s representatives, including the Honolulu City Council, the state legislature and Congress have all said OK to this project. Even Lingle is aboard in the sense that she allowed the critical county-option excise tax hike become law, although it must be admitted that she never was that keen on the idea.

It may be that with the economy in a slump, the prospect of spending billions of dollars on a project that, at best, would serve people long into the future is more than the governor can comfortably accept. Cynics might also point out that as long as the anti-rail campaign is alive, Hannemann will be kept busy spending money and time defending the plan. That’s money and time he might otherwise bank against a possible future political race in which, among others, Lingle might be an opponent.

Interesting new strategy is developing by core supporters of the Hawaiian recognition or Akaka Bill.

As Gordon Pang reports, the Office of Hawaiian Affairs has hired a former Senator and prominent Native American, Ben Nighthorse Campbell, to lobby the bill among his former Republican colleagues on the Hill It’s a smart strategy, particularly since one of the fields of objection to the Akaka Bill in the past revolved around threats to limited resources already committed to Native American groups . That concern has supposedly been written out of the latest draft of the bill, but some lawmakers with strong Indian constituencies might still have concerns. Campbell will help alleviate those worries.

Less clear is OHA’s belief that they need to push hard now, to get the measure before President Bush before the end of the year, and the end of Bush’s term. It’s true that if the bill does not pass Congress this year, supporters will have to start from scratch in the House and Senate next year. No fun at all.

But going ahead this year is almost certain to generate a Bush veto and put the whole matter on a much higher plane of public attention. Senators who might have let the bill through through as a matter of courtesy for their colleagues could be much more gun shy if the whole world was watching in the context of a veto fight.

Some think the grinding work of starting from scratch next year might be a better course, since the next President, whoever he is, is likely to be more open to the Akaka bill than has the adamantly opposed Bush. Democrat Barack Obama is solidly in support and Republican John McCain, while perhaps not so enthusiastic, has given his vote to the cause in the past.

Is this a case of one bird in the Bush or two (possibly) in the hand?