The latest Hawaii Poll on transit continues to confound and amaze.
In the latest story on the poll, reporter Sean Hao says well over half of those surveyed said they were unlikely to ride a rail transit system if it is built. Not good news for transit backers, right?
Well, no. Because, if if even a substantial minority of the population chose to ride the rail system, it would be an overwhelming success. Anyone who commutes during the times the University of Hawaii is out of session knows how much a small decline in commuter volume positively impacts overall commute times. The UH contributes far less than 10 percent of all trafffic. If 10-20-or-30 percent of the commuters switch off the road for rail, it will be wide open spaces for everyone left.
So it is hardly bad news that a majority of folks, including all those who would have no reason to ride the system, say they aren’t interested in rail. The tougher issue is the “if-we-build-it-will-they-come?” matter. People say they would ride the system. But will they, when it is actually there before them?
The problem here is that the only way to test that question adequately is to build something. On that score, the experience in other jurisdictions is decidedly mixed.
Fundamentally, people go to mass transit when they have no realistic alternative. Are we at that point in Honolulu?
If our elected public officials seem to be all over the map on whether we should or should not build a multi-billion dollar fixed rail transit system in Honolulu, maybe it is merely a reflection of how the public feels.
That, at any rate, is one conclusion one could reach from the reaction to the latest Advertiser Hawaii Poll on transit issues. The people surveyed, to be blunt, were nothing if not perplexed by this whole transit thing:
Yes, they want a rail project by a substantial margin, but half of those same respondents believe the project is too expensive for Honolulu. About half of them also say the money would be better spent somewhere else. Yes, we should put the rail issue on the ballot (nevermind that the currently proposed ballot question effectively asks voters to reject the transit project). But if that issue does get on the ballot, the respondents said by a substantial majority, they would vote in favor of going ahead with the project.
In short, this is Contradiction City. No wonder the folks we elected to make decisions are having such a difficult time doing just that.
Despite all the excitement generated by the presidential contest, this is looking to be a real ho-hum election in Hawaii.
The battle over transit, not even an actual contest for political office, looks to be the hottest item on the ballot in Honolulu. Statewide, there may be some controversy over the proposed Constitutional Convention, but that won’t become apparent until the last few weeks before the election.
Otherwise, what? One indication of the low wattage of this year’s election cycle can be found in the number of people who filed for office. Just 282 filed this year, down substantially from 324 two years ago. There were more than 300 candidates in the ‘o4 and ‘02 cycles. In 2002, more than 400 filed, a number which to that point was closer to the norm than the exception.
How can one explain this apparent lack of interest. Is it that folks are pretty much satisfied with things the way they are, and see no reason to push change? Or, is it that they just don’t care?
Despite all the excitement generated by the presidential contest, this is looking to be a real ho-hum election in Hawaii.
The battle over transit, not even an actual contest for political office, looks to be the hottest item on the ballot in Honolulu. Statewide, there may be some controversy over the proposed Constitutional Convention, but that won’t become apparent until the last few weeks before the election.
Otherwise, what? One indication of the low wattage of this year’s election cycle can be found in the number of people who filed for office. Just 282 filed this year, down substantially from 324 two years ago. There were more than 300 candidates in the ‘o4 and ‘02 cycles. In 2002, more than 400 filed, a number which to that point was closer to the norm than the exception.
How can one explain this apparent lack of interest. Is it that folks are pretty much satisfied with things the way they are, and see no reason to push change? Or, is it that they just don’t care?
There’s been lots of talk about how this year’s elections — at least locally — are rather on the dull front. Few dramatic challenges to incumbents are on the horizon. If you’ve been watching television, you might have noticed advertisements for Congresswoman Mazie Hirono, but those appear designed to scare others off rather than deal with a serious electoral threat.
But if the political races are low-key, there’s a chance the public will get energized by two non-personality matters which might be on the ballot. The first is a proposal for a Constitutional Convention, which will sharply pit the force that like things the way they are verus folks who think nothing will change around here unless the rules themselves (the Constituton) is changed.
The other is the possibility that rail transit will be on the ballot in Honolulu. If the initiative fails for legal reasons, it will still be the dominant question through the candidacy of UH Professor Panos Prevedouros, whose campaign is a surrogate for the anti-rail people.
And finally, if that’s not enough, local folks will be more than normally energized by a presidential campaign between a ar hero with Hawaii ties, John MCain and a Hawaii born kamaaina, Barack Obama.
